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    World Affairs Journal: Ukraine's Orange Blues?

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Summary

Overview of Ukraine's political climate and how it will impact it's energy industry. Whether or not Ukraine becomes Nigeria is now up to the EU and Shell on the one hand and Ukraine’s democratic opposition on the other.

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Press Notes

World Affairs Journal: Ukraine's Orange Blues?

Is the shale-gas deal President Viktor Yanukovych signed with Royal Dutch Shell on January 24th good news or bad news for Ukraine? 

Here, according to Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, are some of the details:

Under the agreement, the Yuzivska shale-gas field in eastern Ukraine would be tapped using the controversial new technology of hydraulic fracturing, or fracking. Ukraine is believed to have an estimated 1.2 trillion cubic meters of shale-gas reserves, the third-largest such deposits in Europe. Ukrainian officials say Shell’s investments would likely be around $10 billion but could go as high as $50 billion. Environmental groups say chemicals used in the fracking process can threaten the health of surrounding communities, but the industry has aggressively challenged those claims.

The good or potentially good news is:

First, it’s now conceivable that Ukraine could, within the next five to ten years, meet all its natural-gas needs with its own reserves. There might even be some left over for export. Energy dependence on Russia would end, Ukraine’s gas pipeline network would remain Ukraine’s, and the billions ending up in Gazprom’s coffers would stay in the country. Relations with Russia could improve because the major bone of contention between the two countries—energy—would have been removed. And if they don’t improve, they will at least have been clarified. If President Vladimir Putin continues to press for Ukraine’s integration into Russia’s sphere of interest, even the most obtuse Regionnaire will have to see that it’s just a nakedly imperialist ploy.  MORE