RFE/RL: End Of South Stream: Winners & Losers
BIG WINNER?
Turkey
Turkey has languished for years as a wannabe EU member, a prospect that now seems highly unlikely given Turkey's drift toward political Islamism and the authoritarian traits of its leader, Recep Tayyip Erdogan. But that no longer matters. With Turkey holding the keys to a new southern supply of Russian gas, its position vis-a-vis Europe will be considerably strengthened. Add to that the juicy prospects of energy security and beefed-up trade with Russia -- which has fewer places to shop these days -- and it's a win-win-win for Ankara. It can even play Russia off rival supplier Azerbaijan to secure cheaper gas.
BIG LOSER?
Southern Europe
Countries like Bulgaria and Serbia remember well the winter of 2009, when achingly cold temperatures coincided with Russia's punitive shutoff of gas to Ukraine. Germany used the lesson to press forward with the Nord Stream pipeline, guaranteeing a direct gas supply. But the EU has repeatedly blocked its southern counterpart, citing antimonopoly policies but possibly fearing even greater Russian influence within the bloc. The South Stream countries not only lose energy guarantees, they lose lucrative transit fees, new jobs, and the potential for better trade with Russia.