Gazprom’s European exports surge in Q1 [Gas in Transition]

Gazprom's exports to Europe increased to 2.5bn m³ in March, versus 2bn m³ in the same month last year, marking the seventh month in a row that the company's supplies to the continent are up year/year, while EU policymakers continue to debate reductions in demand and eliminating Russian imports.

By mastering its gas ‘uncertainty principle’¹, the Kremlin likes to remind everyone that: (1) only low-cost gas projects (mostly in Russia) have a certainty of profit; (2) at a time when the EU needs to reverse the processes of deindustrialisation and carbon leakage that have taken place over recent decades, cheap Russian gas cannot be sanctioned nor embargoed by the European Commission, nor the next one and (3) the path of the energy transition depends on the cost competitiveness of green energies versus non-green energies.

Gazprom’s monthly gas exports to Europe

Sources: Entsog, thierrybros.com

Russian pipeline gas flows are expected to remain within the narrow range of 0.9-2.4bn m³/month and probably above 2.3bn m³/m.

Split of Gazprom’s monthly gas exports to Europe via route

Sources: Gazprom, GTSOU, Entsog, thierrybros.com

For the first time since July 2023, LNG send-out in the EU is up yr/yr, by 3%.

EU LNG send-out (excluding Malta)

Source: GIE, thierrybros.com

After shifting back into the historical range on December 5, EU gas storage utilisation moved below the year-ago level on January 9, owing to a short-lived cold spell. But the return of mild winter and ongoing anaemic industrial and power demand has pushed the 2024 storage curve back above 2023 records since February 11. The winter season finished with storage 59% full – a record.

EU gas storage utilisation

Source: GIE, thierrybros.com

With more Russian pipeline gas arriving and still less gas needed for power generation, EU storage facilities could be filling up quickly.

Dr. Thierry Bros

Energy Expert & Professor

April 2, 2024