JD Spura: Natural Gas Imports into China – Prospects for Growth
According to BP's Energy Outlook 2035, China will become the world's largest energy importer by 2035, overtaking Europe in terms of its energy imports. China's projected growth in demand for energy supplies, its plans to embrace cleaner and more efficient energy sources, and developments in the liquefied natural gas (LNG) and gas global markets provide a strong basis for the view that there is considerable scope for increase in its natural gas consumption. It is also likely that such increase in consumption will be met by a growing volume of natural gas imports. As a general overview, this article discusses the current state of China's consumption and importation of natural gas, the supply and pricing factors affecting such imports, and the potential for growth in imports as well as the extent to which such imports will be supplied by LNG and pipeline gas quantities respectively.
Natural Gas Consumption and Importation
Presently, coal supplies the vast majority of China's energy consumption, with such fuel source supplying over 65% of its energy demand in recent years. As for natural gas, this currently supplies a significantly smaller fraction of China's total energy needs, being approximately 5% of China's energy primary sources in 2013. However, it is worth noting that the size of the Chinese gas market means that even with such a small fraction of energy demand being met by natural gas, China is already the world's third largest gas consumer and its natural gas consumption in 2013 was approximately 160 billion cubic metres (BCM). Furthermore, China's natural gas consumption has been continually increasing in recent years. In 2013, consumption increased by approximately 12% and it is projected to increase over 10% by the end of this year. As shown by the chart below, there has been a widening gap between domestic production and growing gas demand, resulting in total imports increasing to around 52 BCM and import dependence rising to around 30% in 2013. MORE