US LNG to Help, Not to Solve European Problems with Russia - Columbia Report

Europe will remain dependent on Russia for its gas supplies despite US LNG exports, but it will benefit from the lower prices Gazprom will be forced to concede in order to remain competitive. These are the main results of a report by the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University. 

‘We find that European consumers stand to benefit considerably from US natural gas exports. While more volume goes to Japan than to Europe in our modeling, additional supply puts downward pressure on prices globally, and the magnitude of the resulting benefit—in dollar terms—is greater in Europe due to greater overall gas consumption. At 9 bcf/d (93 bcm) of US LNG ex- ports, European consumers, including Ukraine, save $21 billion on natural gas per year.., representing an 11% reduction in total natural gas expenditures,’ reads the report by Jason Bordoff and Trevor Houser. 

In this sense, the limited exports would have a primary impact on prices and, marginally, on energy security. 

‘By forcing state-run Gazprom to reduce prices to remain competitive in the European market, US LNG exports could have a meaningful impact on total Russian gas export revenue. While painful for Russian gas companies, the total economic impact on state coffers is unlikely to be significant enough to prompt a change in Moscow’s foreign policy, particularly in the next few years.’

Indeed, Europe will still be reliant on Russia, which is expected to remain Europe’s dominant gas applies for the foreseeable future.  

‘While there are important longer-term benefits for Europe from US LNG exports, they are not a solution to the current crisis. Those terminals already approved will not be online for several years. Terminals pending approval, if constructed, will not be available until after 2020,’ adds a separate document presenting the results.