US expects higher gas production next year
A US federal forecast from September 8 anticipates dry natural gas production increasing by about 3% from second-half 2021 levels by next year.
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) in its monthly market report for September said it expected dry natural gas production to average 92.7bn ft3/day during the second half of the year, a 1.1% increase from first-half levels.
Natural gas production next year is expected to climb to 95.4bn ft3/d, driven by higher commodity prices.
EIA in its latest drilling productivity report forecast natural gas production from inland shale basins will average 86bn ft3/d in September. Though idled because of the impact of Hurricane Ida, offshore production would presumably account for the bulk of the remainder of the full-year forecast.
EIA add that it expected crude oil and natural gas prices will “remain at levels that will support enough drilling to sustain production growth.”
EIA raised its fourth quarter forecast for Henry Hub spot prices by 16% from its August forecast, to $4.00/mn Btu. It also raised its 2022 forecast by 13%, to $3.47/mn Btu. Henry Hub prices could jump to $4.25/mn Btu by January due to increased heating demand, however.
Exports of natural gas as LNG are expected to increase from an average of 9.6bn ft3/d to 10.15bn ft3/d next year.
Natural gas consumption, meanwhile, is expected to move lower because power generators are reverting to coal due to higher natural gas prices.