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    Turkish Regulator Sees 2020 Demand at 52.02bn m³


But there is a poor record of accuracy owing to events beyond the regulator's control.

by: David O'Byrne

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Turkish Regulator Sees 2020 Demand at 52.02bn m³

Turkey's gas demand will reach 52.02bn m³ this year, according to an official estimate by Turkish energy regulator EPDK published in the country's official gazette January 29. The estimate is slightly down on the EPDK's estimate of 52.13bn m³ for 2019.

The validity of that estimate has yet to be verified as the regulator has released data only until October 2019, with full year data not expected until the end of next month. But the accuracy of the 2020 forecast will depend in part on government policy, the strength of the lira relative to the dollar, and international gas prices.

Data for the first ten months of 2019 show demand was 36.3bn m³, down 7.31% on the same period in 2018. Full year consumption for 2018 was 49.32bn m³, which was 10.5% lower than the EPDK's estimate of 54.52bn m³.

That high estimate was made before Ankara implemented policies to limit the current account deficit caused by lira volatility. Turkey has very little domestic output to turn up but it does have spare capacity in the coal-fired generation fleet, so Ankara lowered gas burn for power generation by making it more expensive for generators. Coal and renewable energy rose but gas fell 22.5% relative to 2014 in 2018, and a further year-on-year fall is expected to have happened 2019 relative to 2018.