S Africa Plans Power Mix for 2030
South Africa's energy minister Jeff Radebe published August 27 the country’s long-delayed Integrated Resource Plan (IRP), which gives natural gas a prominent role in the future power generation mix. There will be no new nuclear build, at least until 2030; and no further coal-powered plants, apart from those already announced.
Radebe said that additional capacity to 2030 will instead come from the following sources: 1 GW from coal, 2.5 GW from hydro, 5.67 GW from solar, 8.1 GW from wind and 8.1 GW from gas. South Africa's economy has been limping along in recent years, so total electricity demand has not grown as fast as predicted in the last IRP, of 2010. “Currently, the grid volume is similar to 2007, which is 30% less than projected in previous IRP,” said Radebe.
His department is to undertake “a detailed analysis of gas supply options to better understand the technical and financial risks and required mitigations for a renewable energy and gas-dominated electricity generation mix post 2030.”
Under the new capacity mix, gas will account for 16%, coal for 46%, nuclear for 2.5%, hydro for 6%, pump storage for 4%, solar for 11% and wind for 15%. There is also to be more flexibility to allow off-grid electricity generation, and for further development of independent power producers.
Asked during his briefing where the new gas generating capacity will come from, Radebe told NGW: "That is a good question! We don’t have as yet a (new significant) gas find in SA. There is gas in Tanzania, Mozambique as well as Namibia.
“At the South African Development Community (SADC) Heads of State summit two weeks ago we agreed a gas masterplan for SADC. We also have bilateral agreements. I am in Mozambique next week to finalise our collaboration and engagements with Mozambique.” South Africa already imports gas by pipeline from Mozambique, and this is expected to expand. Radebe said a “process is unfolding” on fracking in the arid Karoo, where there is potential for shale gas production. South Africa is also planning a gas to power programme based on imported LNG.
Local attention has focused on the decision in the new IRP not to commission new nuclear, which had been favoured by the regime of the former president, Jacob Zuma.