Russian gas output to drop to lowest level in 14 years in 2023: IEA
Russian natural gas production is on track to slump this year to its lowest level since 2009, the International Energy Agency (IEA) reported in its latest medium-term gas report on October 10.
Russia steeply cut gas pipeline exports to Europe last year, first by denying supplies to customers that refused to buy volumes in rubles, and later as a result of the halt in westward flow via the Yamal-Europe pipeline and reduced use of the now-ruptured Nord Stream 1 pipeline.
"The country's natural gas output in 2023 is expected to drop to its lowest level since 2009, putting pressure on upstream operations and potentially leading to production shut-ins at ageing, vulnerable fields," the IEA said.
Production will decline 8% to 620bn m3 this year, based on the IEA's forecast, after dropping 12% in 2022. It fell 10% year/year in January-August 2023.
Output should recover by 9% by 2026 to 677bn m3, according to the Paris-based agency, but this will still be 11% less than the record level seen in 2021.
"This reflects Russia's limited options for finding new export outlets over the medium term to replace the volumes once sent to the European market," the IEA said. "Altogether, this year's forecast foresees a cumulative production loss of over 600bn m3 for the 2023-2026 period compared with our. pre-war medium-term outlook."
Gazprom has borne the brunt of the decline so far, the IEA said, with most of the decrease occurring at Bovanenkovo and the company's other giant, flexible swing fields situated in West Siberia and on the Yamal Peninsula.
Novatek, Russia's second-biggest gas producer, increased supply by 3% thanks to higher LNG exports.