Report Flags up Petrostates Most Vulnerable to Transition

The 40 most oil and gas-dependent countries economies stand to lose $9 trillion in oil and gas revenues by 2040 as a result of the world shifting to low-carbon energy, London-based think tank Carbon Tracker has estimated a new report.

These 40 states could face a 46% average drop in revenues if oil and gas demand falls in line with tightening global climate policy and technological advances, Carbon Tracker's Beyond Petrostates report finds. The countries most vulnerable to the energy transition based on how much their governments depend on oil and gas revenues to cover their budgets, classified as Tier 5, are Angola, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Equatorial Guinea, Oman, South Sudan and Timor-Leste. The least vulnerable, with a Tier-1 ranking, are Colombia, Egypt and Papua New Guinea.

Myanmar, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, Uzbekistan and Yemen have no ranking because of insufficient data. Major oil and gas producers Russia and Saudi Arabia were placed in Tier 3 and Tier 4 respectively. Iran and Qatar were both in Tier 3, while Norway was in Tier 2 and Nigeria in Tier 4

Carbon Tracker called on the international community to help the most vulnerable countries diversify their economies, "by supporting the development of new technologies, offering technical assistance for regulatory and tax reform, and providing capital." Worldwide, all oil and gas-producing countries risk losing $13 trillion in collective revenues by 2040, representing a 47% drop, Carbon Tracker said.