Oz to be Top LNG Producer Till 2024: Rystad

Australia is poised to become the world’s largest producer of LNG next year and to retain that position until 2024, when Qatar will reclaim the top spot, Rystad Energy said June 3.

“Australia has no intention of relinquishing its hard-earned LNG crown without a fight. Over the next two years, pending approvals on up to seven Australian integrated LNG projects could challenge Qatar as the country with the largest sanctioned LNG volumes from integrated projects during that period,” said Readul Islam, Rystad’s upstream research analyst.

These seven Australian LNG projects will collectively supply just over 30mn metric tons/year at full capacity, and will require a total expenditure of nearly US$31bn from final investment decision (FID) to the first export of LNG.

“However, though sanctioned Australian LNG supply volumes could run neck and neck with Qatar over the next couple of years, Qatari LNG production should retake the top producer crown midway through the next decade,” Islam added.

Following the 2017 lifting of Qatar’s North Field moratorium, Qatar Petroleum has revealed a plan for four additional production facilities (LNG trains) to supply 33mn mt/yr of LNG. When these expansion trains reach plateau rates during the mid-2020s, Qatar will regain the top LNG producer crown that it will lose next year to Australia, Rystad said.

With Australia recently rolling off a glut of LNG mega-project construction, much of the near-term capacity additions are backfill projects intended to maximise capacity utilisation at existing hubs, according to Rystad, adding most of the imminent LNG capacity additions that are expected in Australia won’t require the construction of additional trains – only the Scarborough development will require an expansion train at Woodside’s Pluto LNG project.

“The jostling for the top LNG producer crown probably is of cursory interest to oilfield service specialists. If we add proposed onshore LNG projects in Papua New Guinea to the tally from Australia, a US$40bn wave of LNG projects will wash over the region over the next couple of years. Service players won’t want to miss a slice of this world-class pie,” Islam said.