Iran's Demand Could Rise by 1bn boe/yr by 2025
The managing director of Iran Fuel Conservation Organization has said if the country fails to halve energy intensity by 2025, all the produced oil and gas will be consumed domestically and none be left for exports.
Nosratollah Seifi added that assuming annual growth at 6%, demand could be cut to 1.414bn barrels of oil equivalent by implementing of energy intensity decline projects, the official website of the Fuel Conservation Organization reported. But this would come at a cost of some $192bn, he said.
Without those measures, by 2021, it will reach 2.6bn boe, compared with 1.6bn boe/yr today, he said. About 65% of that is gas.
Energy intensity measures the amount of primary energy supply in metric tons of oil equivalent (mtoe) a country needs to generate a unit of gross domestic product (GDP).
According to documents, obtained by NGE, the figure for Iran is 0.9 mtoe to create $1000-worth of GDP, which is nine times more than Japan and Germany. "Without implementation of energy intensity reduction projects, Iran will have no surplus oil and gas in 2021 or at least in 2025," he said.
He referred to the results of implementing policies to improve consumption patterns as saving 5bn barrels of oil equivalent and 1.8bn mt of emissions, as well as saving $870bn by 2030 and creating 3mn jobs.
The latest report of the National Iranian Oil Refining and Distribution Company (NIORDC) indicates that LPG, gasoline, kerosene, diesel, jet fuel, and fuel oil, and natural gas met 96% of the country’s total need to energy in the past Iranian fiscal year, which ended on March 20, 2015. Iran consumed more than 1.6bn boe in the past year.
Energy demand in Iran has risen sharply in recent years, particularly for gas.