Indonesian Gas Output Heading for Decline: Rystad
Indonesian gas production is set to fall 1% this year to 5.87bn ft3/day this year, Oslo-based Rystad Energy said in a research note on February 20, contrary to the country's upstream regulator SKK Migas forecast of a 12.4% growth.
Rystad similarly predicts a 3.8% slide in Indonesian oil output to 718,000 b/day, even though SKK is targeting a 1.2% rise.
State-owned Pertamina, which operates several major production blocks, "has to clear many hurdles to lift its output in 2020," the consultancy said. "Pressure on the national oil company is mounting as the Mahakam and Rokan fields have both witnessed higher decline rates since they were awarded to the company in 2018." Mahakam had previously been operated by French Total, who was accused of under-investing in it.
Gas production will receive a boost from the launch this year of the Merakes field operated by Italy's Eni, but the real effect will not be felt until at least 2021, Rystad said. Oil output will continue declining as there are no new major projects in the pipeline, it said.
"Given this lacklustre outlook, it is imperative for Indonesia’s oil and gas production that Pertamina reduces sanctioning hurdles that have long delayed many of its projects and implements advanced enhanced oil recovery (EOR) technology on its mature fields," Rystad analyst Prateek Pandey said.