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    Gains forecast for US gas output


All but one of the primary shale basins in the Lower 48 are expected to see production increases from September to October.

by: Daniel Graeber

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Gains forecast for US gas output

The US Energy Information Administration in a drilling report published September 13 forecast a month-on-month increase in natural gas of about 0.25%.

The agency, part of the Energy Department, forecasts an average production rate of 87.1bn ft3/d for September. That rate is expected to increase to 87.3bn ft3/d in October.

Only the Anadarko shale basin, situated mostly in Oklahoma, is expected to see a net decline in production from September to October. The Appalachia shale, which includes both the Marcellus and Utica formations, is the most prolific natural gas producer with an expected average rate in September of 34.7bn ft3/d. That is forecast to improve to 34.8bn ft3/d next month.

The Permian basin is the second-largest gas producer behind Appalachia. Production from September is expected to increase about 0.3% to average 18.8bn ft3/d next month. Haynesville, situated across Louisiana and parts of Texas, is forecast to see production increase from 13.4bn ft3/d to 13.5bn ft3/d in October.

The agency’s short-term market report for September forecasts total dry natural gas production will average 92.7bn ft3/d during the second half of the year, an increase from first-half levels of 91.7bn ft3/d.

Higher commodity prices should incentivise more drilling. The agency expects natural gas production will rise to an average of 95.4bn ft3/d next year.