ExxonMobil Sees More Gas in Lower Carbon Future
Global consumption of natural gas is expected to climb by 38% by 2040, ExxonMobil says in its 2018 Outlook for Energy released February 2, even in a carbon-constrained future that seeks to limit the global average temperature increase by 2100 to two degrees above pre-industrial levels.
All energy sources remain important under the two-degree scenario, the outlook says, but it notes that natural gas will lead a projected 0.5% annual energy demand increase between 2010 and 2040: gas demand will increase 0.9% annually, oil demand will decline by 0.4% each year while all renewables – biomass and waste, hydro and other – will see collective demand climb by about 4.5% per year.
These forecasts would put gas demand in 2040 at an estimated 175 quadrillion Btu (about 445bn ft3/day), with oil demand falling to around 211 quadrillion Btu, or to some 78mn b/day. Meeting these demand expectations, the outlook notes, would require “trillions of dollars of additional investment in oil and gas production.”
“Our job is to supply the energy the world needs in an environmentally responsible way,” said ExxonMobil chairman and CEO Darren Woods said. “It’s a dual challenge – we need to meet society’s growing need for energy while addressing the risks of climate change. We are committed to being part of the solution by investing in new technologies that can provide economic solutions on a globally scalable basis.”
Emerging economies – those outside the OECD – will account for virtually all the energy demand growth, driven largely by ongoing electrification efforts: energy demand for power generation accounts for 50% of global demand growth, and again, much of that comes from non-OECD countries.
“Natural gas use is likely to increase more than any other energy source, around 40%, with about half its growth for electricity generation,” said T.J. Wojnar, ExxonMobil’s vice president, corporate strategic planning. “The abundance and versatility of natural gas, in addition to its significant air quality benefits, make it a valuable energy source to meet a wide variety of needs, while also helping the world to shift to a less carbon-intensive source of energy.”
Demand for gas-fired power generation in OECD countries will increase by 20% by 2040, to 27 quadrillion Btu from 20 quadrillion Btu in 2010, but will soar by 61% in non-OECD countries, to 48 quadrillion Btu from 26 quadrillion Btu.
Coal-fired power, which in 2016 accounted for 43% of global generation, will fall by 48% by 2040 in OECD countries but will increase by 23% in non-OECD economies. In 2040, it will still meet 33% of global power generating demand, the largest share of any fuel, including nuclear.