EIA sees gas strength through 2023
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) on January 11 that natural gas would show strength in production, prices and exports through 2023, continuing a trend it predicts for 2022.
Dry natural gas production, the STEO says, averaged 93.5bn ft3/day in 2021, up 2bn ft3/day from 2020, and is expected to increase to 96bn ft3/day for all of 2022 before rising again to 97.6bn ft3/day in 2023.
The benchmark natural gas price at Henry Hub averaged $3.91/mn Btu in 2021, peaking at $5.51/mn Btu in October before slipping in November and December as mild early-winter weather prevailed across much of the US. The EIA expects Henry Hub to average $3.82/mn Btu in Q1 2022, $3.79/mn Btu for all of this year and $3.63/mn Btu in 2023.
Supported by strong price expectations – domestically and on global LNG markets – the EIA expects that US LNG exports, which averaged 9.8bn ft3/day in 2021, will increase to 11.5bn ft3/day this year and 12.1bn ft3/day in 2023 as a steady stream of new liquefaction capacity in Texas and Louisiana comes on-line. LNG exports averaged 6.5bn ft3/day in 2020.