Former IEA Director to the EU: Take a Path with More Gas
“In the coming decades consumption of gas will rise everywhere in the world: In every region but one… Europe” – underlined Claude Mandil
Speaking at the at the recent Gas Infrastructure Europe summit, Mandil asks: “Should we be concerned? What if this is wrong?”.
The Deputy Chair, Advisory Group on Energy Roadmap 2050, commented that according to the EU Commission forecasts, natural gas consumption in Europe will decrease. However, Mandil explained why – in his opinion – the extrapolation prepared by the EU Commission were most probably not accurate and why it could become quite a costly mistake for the Europeans.
Mandil believes that the uncertainty in forecasting out to 2050 is high, so that options must be considered - as he said - “flexibility means use of natural gas.”
He reminded the audience that estimates of gas reserves had been growing steadily and the current level of remaining global recoverable reserves were as high as 800 Tcm. “There is too much or at least quite enough of gas in the ground. That means to me that we don`t have to be concerned with geological resources.”
However, despite of availability of reserves, inaccurate predictions and mistaken policy decisions could jeopardize long term ability of Europe to get as much of gas as it needs.
According to Mandil, who also served as Executive Director of the International Energy Agency, there are many reasons to believe that consumption of gas in 2050 in Europe will be much higher than current predictions.
“Firstly, more energy efficiency, which is a necessity, does not mean less but more electricity, what means more gas,” he argued.
“Secondly, because of expected larger share of renewables, wind means a need for a large backup capacity, which will be provided by natural gas.”
Finally he noted that given the existing economic difficulties in Europe, it could be useful to prefer the least costly option to provide energy to the consumer and that this option will most probably mean “going a path with more gas.”
Mandil warned that mistakes made today would make going this path in future, a very steep climb up. “Do not say we would not need a lot of gas, because this will reduce investments,” he said, appealing to the policy makers not to create predictions that may become self-fulfilling prophecy.
Mandil observed that underestimating demand in Europe may be a signal for investors, that they should go elsewhere. Here – as he pointed out - comes the main concern: “we are not alone on the planet.”
He recommended looking at the “huge plans of gas consumption in Asia.” “Gas consumption is going to soar in Asia, particularly in China but also in India.” “That could be very bad news for Europe and for the climate,'' Mandil summarized, noting that under investments in gas could lead to a fallback on coal resources.