Britain Runs Low on Gas to Balance System (Update as of Mar.2)
Update Mar.2: National Grid withdrew 8.04am GMT the Gas Deficit Warning that it had issued early on March 1. The supply deficit has eased, with NGrid at about 9am forecasting 394mn m3 demand on gas day March 2, against expected supply of 390.2mn m3 and physical flows at 9am of 401.5mn m3.
The original article, posted March 1 10.10am, follows.
National Grid has issued a Gas Deficit Warning March 1, indicating that Britain’s gas system will be short unless large industrial users curtail demand.
Its warning was issued 5.48am GMT March 1 “in response to a series of significant supply losses resulting in a forecast end-of-day supply deficit.” The supply losses are understood to be flows at the beach either from the UK North Sea or Netherlands.
At around 9am, it forecast that gas demand on ‘gas day March 1’ (6am -6am) would be 395.8mn m3 – whereas forecast supply is only 360.6mn m3, and actual physical flows at 9am were equivalent to 364.5mn m3. By 9.30am the latter had increased slightly to 373.42mn m3. The BBC reported in the morning on March 1 that spot UK NBP gas prices had reached £1.90 per therm, although NGW has as yet been unable to confirm this. At close of trading February 28, day-ahead NBP (so for gas March 1) was £1.15/th, much higher than in recent days.
National Grid’s warning said it will consider any offers by users to reduce gas demand. Prior to 9am it followed that up by saying: “National Grid has a requirement to buy locational gas. Shippers are requested to post offers on the OCM locational market at all locations.” OCM stands for On the day Commodity Market, a trading platform. Locational gas specifies an entry-point, rather than simply NBP, the virtual balancing point. (Press statement from National Grid sent to NGW at 11.10am GMT is appended)
Instantaneous flow data shown by National Grid indicated that zero gas was entering Britain’s gas system from the Rough offshore gas storage facility, which is to be shut down definitively, while imports via the BBL pipeline from the Netherlands – reported to be having technical problems on February 28 – were also low. In contrast, the Langeled pipeline from Norway was supplying gas at near maximum, at 75mn m3/d as at 9.30am, with Interconnector UK bringing in 35mn m3 from Belgium – as the continent also shivered in the grip of an extended icy period.
Most of the Norwegian gas export system was flowing strongly to mainland Europe and the UK as of 9.55am GMT (10.55am Norwegian time) March 1. However system operator Gassco reported an ongoing technical problem at its Kollsnes gas process plant that was curtailing exports by 16mn m3/d, and another into the Segal pipeline that was curtailing exports by 18mn m3/d. However flows into Gassco import terminals in Germany, UK, France and Belgium were all high at the same time.
Update 11.20am GMT:
National Grid issued this press statement to NGW at 11.10am GMT: “National gas demand today is high and due to the extreme weather conditions, there have been gas supply losses overnight. At 5.45am this morning we issued a ‘Gas Deficit Warning’ to the market. This is an indication to the market that we’d like more gas to be made available to ensure the safe and reliable operation of the national gas network. We are in communication with industry partners and are closely monitoring the situation.”