Aussie LNG export revenue to decline in FY23-24 on lower prices: report
Australia's LNG export revenue for the fiscal year ending June 30, 2024 (FY23-24) is projected to reach A$68bn ($45.4bn), down from A$92bn in FY22-23 owing to easing LNG prices compared to the record high levels witnessed in 2022, according to the federal government's Resources & Energy Quarterly report published on July 3. The report forecasts a further fall of A$8bn in revenue in FY24-25.
The average LNG price for FY23-24 is expected to be A$15.9/gigajoule (GJ), significantly lower than the previous year's average of A$21.4/GJ. For FY24-25, the average price is expected to be A$14.4/GJ.
In terms of LNG production, Australia is estimated to produce 81mn metric tons (mt) in FY23-24, slightly lower than the 82mn mt produced in FY22-23. The production is further predicted to decrease to 79mn mt in FY24-25.
The report highlights a mixed outlook for Australia's LNG industry. While the environment remains favorable for LNG producers, existing facilities are facing challenges in backfilling their operations with gas from new reserves, resulting in a marginal decline in LNG exports, the report stated. Additionally, despite high commodity prices, investment in offshore exploration in Australia remains low, which could impact gas production beyond the forecast period.
The Australian Petroleum Production & Exploration Association (APPEA), the country's peak oil and gas body, in a separate statement emphasised the importance of LNG exports, stating that they support thousands of jobs, contribute to government revenues, and drive significant local expenditure.
APPEA CEO Samantha McCulloch highlighted the industry's substantial investment of A$400bn in LNG projects over the past 15 years, underscoring the nation's domestic energy security and economic benefits.
“The Australian oil and gas industry is committed to domestic supply but the importance of exports is once again in the spotlight,” McCulloch said. “The industry’s A$400bn investment in LNG projects over the past 15 years underpins the nation’s domestic energy security and delivers substantial economic benefits to Australia.”
“Even with a slowing of export returns in the cycle across the resources sector, gas is still a reliable and significant economic driver in the nation’s fortunes at a time when the economy is facing headwinds and uncertainty,” she added.