Angola: Power Changes Hands, Any Change for Oil & Gas?
Angola's ruling MPLA party, as expected, won the August 23 general election with 64% of the votes, securing 220 parliamentary seats, and entitling its candidate -- defence minister Joao Lourenço, 63 -- to succeed incumbent José Eduardo dos Santos as the country's new president.
According to the national electoral commission, its two main rivals Unita and Casa-CE got respectively 24.04% and 8.56% of the vote.
Dos Santos has been president for 38 years and Lourenço has remained his unwavering supporter since he himself entered politics in 1984 as a regional governor. He will take office in 2018 when Dos Santos leaves power as he announced in February.
"Joao Lourenço is part of the first circle of power, ever loyal both to the party and the president. Respected by the army, he lives differently from other senior officials and his wife has the reputation of a technocrat," says Didier Peclard, a political scientist who specialises in sub-Saharan Africa and is a researcher at the University of Geneva.
Back in 2014, when he was put at the head of the country’s army, many saw him only as the president’s runner-up. However, though he showed in the past interest in holding the position of president, he made no move in this regard until February 2017 when he officially announced his candidature.
Given their relationship, Lourenço’s governance style would not vary much from that of Dos Santos. Observers believe that the Dos Santos family will still control oil and LNG assets through state-owned Sonangol, chaired by Isabel, daughter of the current President and Africa’s richest woman.
Moreover, a month ago, Luanda adopted new laws preventing the new president from firing army, police and intelligence services’ chiefs. This would, even if he wanted to, prevent the new leader from dismissing Jose Filomeno dos Santos, the outgoing president's son who heads Angola’s $5bn sovereign wealth fund. Also José Eduardo dos Santos himself will remain at the head of MPLA until 2022.
Regarding oil from which the country derives most of its revenues, no indication was given about who will be appointed new minister of oil and gas, after Lourenço effectively takes office. The new president has promised to ensure that economic diversification is achieved under his rule.
Joao Lourenço at a meeting with US Defense Secretary Jim Mattis in May 2017 (Photo credit: US Dept of Defense / Air Force Staff Sgt Jette Carr / Wikipedia)
Olivier de Souza