Will Russia Decide to Start Gas War with Europe?

Looking from the commercial standpoint,  a new gas war does not make any sense.  Especially, while Gazprom desperately needs cash for its Power of Siberia pipeline to China, as well as for the South Stream project.
 
On the other hand, Kremlin's decisions on the Russian gas policy are always far from being commercially motivated.  For instance, Gazprom wants to invest over $60 Billion  into the South Stream project and its feeding pipelines that would bypass Ukraine and eventually close the Ukrainian gas market that annually generates $12-$15 Billion of Gazprom revenue.
 
With the winter getting closer,  Gazprom has already started to play stick-and-carrot game with East European member-states of the EU.  During the period of maintenance works at the Yamal-Europe pipeline in  mid-September, Gazprom showed a stick to Poland refusing to increase daily flows of gas through other pipelines.  A bit later,  Gazprom gave a carrot to Hungary for halting the reverse flows to Ukraine.
 
The decision to turn off the gas tap depends on the mood of Vladimir Putin, which in turn depends on Ukraine's willingness to bend to Russia's will.  In any case,  the European gas front will be anything but quiet.  

Mikhail Korchemkin

Our thanks to East European Gas Analysis, a Natural Gas Europe Industry Partner