NPD Sees Gas Plateau to 2021, Then Uncertainty

The Norwegian Petroleum Directorate, the country’s upstream regulator, has said that 116.8bn standard m³ of gas were sold in 2016 (or 114.6bn m³ of gas at 40 megajoules/m³), similar to the previous year.

Sales in 2016 were 9% more than NPD had projected this time last year, it told a briefing January 12 in Stavanger. This was largely due to continued high demand for gas from Europe. Its prognosis for gas sales over the short-term, shown in the graphic below, illustrates a stable high level of gas sales from the Norwegian shelf moving forward.

Actual and projected gas sales through 2021 (Graphic credit: NPD's 'The Shelf in 2016' )

NPD forecast that sales gas would plateau at 114.5bn m³ of gas at 40MJ/m³ in 2017, 2018 and 2019 (compared with 114.6bn m³ in 2016) before tailing off slightly to 114.3bn m³ in 2020 and 113.8bn m³ in 2021. Its forecast for oil and other liquids is for 2mn b/d in 2017, 1.9mn b/d in 2018, 1.8mn b/d in 2019 and then a reversal to 1.9mn b/d in 2020 and 2mn b/d in 2021.

Beyond 2021 however, NPD said that Norwegian oil and gas production will be uncertain, depending on what measures are implemented at producing fields, which discoveries are approved for development and when they come on stream, and not least, whether new discoveries are made during the period, how when they are developed, and how large they are.

After several years of high exploration activity, 36 oil and gas exploration wells were drilled in 2016, 20 fewer than in 2015, which NPD said was “mainly due to a lower oil price and cost cuts.”

Mark Smedley